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United States Philly Fed Business Conditions
3.9
Actual
31.6
Consensus
29.1
Previous
THE RELEASE Philly Fed Business Conditions (United States) was reported at 52.90 in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 73.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 45.45, ranging from 25.50 to 73.60 across 11 releases. WHY IT MATTERS The trailing three releases averaged 53.63, up from the prior three at 47.80. Volatility over the past year (σ 12.08) is lower than the prior year (σ 14.95). In September readings over the past 3 years, Philly Fed Business Conditions has averaged 33.40. THE MODEL'S TAKE Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). WHAT TO WATCH NEXT The next release is scheduled for October 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 30) and ADP Employment Change (Sep 30). Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
Philly Fed Business Conditions - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, December 31, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | US | Population Total | 340003797.000000 | 336755052.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Personal Remittances Received (US$) | 8712000000.000000 | 8400000000.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | FDI Net Inflows (% of GDP) | 1.013919 | 1.301418 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Labor Force Participation Rate (%) | 61.959000 | 62.080000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Unemployment (% of Labor Force) | 4.022000 | 3.638000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | GDP Deflator (Annual %) | 2.482369 | 3.700214 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Inflation, Consumer Prices (Annual %) | 2.949525 | 4.116338 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Broad Money (% of GDP) | 98.756259 | 98.815263 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Central Government Debt (% of GDP) | 115.768353 | 114.734626 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Trade (% of GDP) | 25.016017 | 24.929298 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -4.045646 | -3.336808 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | GDP Per Capita (Current US$) | 86169.664158 | 82586.784771 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | GDP (Current US$) | 29298013000000.000000 | 27811517000000.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | GDP Growth (Annual %) | 2.793187 | 2.934363 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 129.277500 | 128.820500 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.380000 | 2.350000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.340000 | 2.310000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5881.630000 | 5906.940000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.035100 | 1.038600 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.370000 | 157.260000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 17.350000 | 17.400000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.210000 | 0.180000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.780000 | 4.770000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 72.440000 | 71.730000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 74.580000 | 74.240000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -1.442000 | -3.200000 | -3.000000 | NaN | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | 9.600000 | 9.800000 | 9.000000 | 8.82 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 13.800000 | 10.900000 | 12.000000 | 10.80 | low |
| 00:00 | US | House Price Index | 432.300000 | 430.600000 | 432.300000 | 432.27 | low |
| 00:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.400000 | 0.700000 | 0.500000 | 0.47 | low |
| 00:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 4.500000 | 4.500000 | 3.900000 | 4.08 | low |
| 00:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | -0.200000 | -0.300000 | -0.200000 | -0.30 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 4.200000 | 4.600000 | 4.100000 | 4.03 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Redbook YoY | 7.100000 | 5.900000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.920000 | 2.940000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.330000 | 0.310000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.250000 | 4.240000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.580000 | 4.550000 | - | - | critical |
| Monday, December 30, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.820500 | 128.450000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.350000 | 2.380000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.310000 | 2.340000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5906.940000 | 5970.840000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Regular Gas Price | 3.006000 | 3.024000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.038600 | 1.042300 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.260000 | 157.730000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 17.400000 | 15.950000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.180000 | 0.310000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.770000 | 4.820000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 71.730000 | 71.280000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 74.240000 | 73.770000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.135000 | 4.170000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.230000 | 4.240000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 3.400000 | -2.700000 | -0.400000 | -0.55 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 2.200000 | 1.800000 | 0.700000 | 2.78 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 6.900000 | 5.400000 | 5.800000 | 7.25 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Chicago PMI | 36.900000 | 40.200000 | 42.500000 | 40.60 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.940000 | 2.840000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.310000 | 0.310000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.240000 | 4.310000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.550000 | 4.620000 | - | - | critical |
| Sunday, December 29, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| Saturday, December 28, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1868000.000000 | 1833000.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 212000.000000 | 219000.000000 | - | - | critical |
| Friday, December 27, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.450000 | 128.332900 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.380000 | 2.390000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.340000 | 2.350000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5970.840000 | 6037.590000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.042300 | 1.042300 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.730000 | 158.010000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 15.950000 | 14.730000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.310000 | 0.230000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index | -0.623700 | -0.497300 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions | -0.485420 | -0.481390 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.820000 | 4.760000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 71.280000 | 70.380000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 73.770000 | 73.500000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 483.000000 | 483.000000 | 483.000000 | NaN | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.320000 | 0.108000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -4.237000 | -0.934000 | -2.000000 | -0.19 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | 0.995000 | -1.131000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | 0.205000 | -0.048000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | 0.178000 | -0.135000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.694000 | -3.180000 | -0.700000 | -1.29 | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Production Change | 0.051000 | -0.173000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 1.630000 | 2.348000 | -1.000000 | -1.53 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | -0.062000 | -0.304000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count | 589.000000 | 589.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -93.000000 | -125.000000 | -99.000000 | -97.67 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -102.860000 | -98.260000 | -100.700000 | -101.36 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.200000 | 0.100000 | 0.200000 | 0.25 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.600000 | 0.300000 | 0.000000 | 0.27 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Current Account | -870.000000 | -774.000000 | -600.000000 | -735.00 | low |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.840000 | 2.860000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.310000 | 0.280000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | Crude Oil Imports | 6926.000000 | 6471.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Crude Oil Refinery Inputs | 13573.000000 | 13585.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Total Motor Gasoline Stocks | 231384.000000 | 223667.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Distillate Fuel Oil Stocks | 122867.000000 | 116461.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.310000 | 4.300000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.620000 | 4.580000 | - | - | critical |
| Thursday, December 26, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.332900 | 128.337700 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.390000 | 2.390000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.350000 | 2.350000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 6037.590000 | 6040.040000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.042300 | 1.038800 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 158.010000 | 157.290000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 14.730000 | 14.270000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.230000 | 0.190000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.760000 | 4.760000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 70.380000 | 70.870000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.860000 | 2.860000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.280000 | 0.300000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.300000 | 4.290000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.580000 | 4.590000 | - | - | critical |
| Wednesday, December 25, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet) | 6885963.000000 | 6889332.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| Tuesday, December 24, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.337700 | 128.302100 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.390000 | 2.380000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.350000 | 2.320000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 6040.040000 | 5974.070000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.038800 | 1.040900 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.290000 | 157.040000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 14.270000 | 16.780000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.190000 | 0.230000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.760000 | 4.780000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 70.870000 | 69.500000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 73.500000 | 72.120000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -3.200000 | -4.700000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year FRN Auction | 0.140000 | 0.170000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Note Auction | 4.478000 | 4.197000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index | 23.000000 | 9.000000 | 7.000000 | 15.00 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -10.000000 | -14.000000 | -9.000000 | -11.25 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -11.000000 | -12.000000 | 2.000000 | 0.00 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Redbook YoY | 5.900000 | 4.800000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.860000 | 2.850000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.300000 | 0.290000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.290000 | 4.300000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.590000 | 4.590000 | - | - | critical |
| Monday, December 23, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.302100 | 127.893000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.380000 | 2.340000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.320000 | 2.290000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5974.070000 | 5930.850000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Regular Gas Price | 3.024000 | 3.016000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.040900 | 1.043000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.040000 | 156.110000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 16.780000 | 18.360000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.230000 | 0.180000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.780000 | 4.720000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 69.500000 | 69.710000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 72.120000 | 73.190000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Note Auction | 4.335000 | 4.274000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 52-Week Bill Auction | 4.070000 | 4.190000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 42-Day Bill Auction | 4.280000 | 4.270000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | 5.900000 | -14.800000 | 8.200000 | 7.63 | high |
| 00:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 104.700000 | 112.800000 | 113.000000 | 110.88 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.664000 | 0.627000 | 0.650000 | 0.66 | high |
| 00:00 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.240000 | 4.250000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.170000 | 4.160000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.493000 | 1.419000 | 1.505000 | 1.51 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | -1.100000 | 0.800000 | -0.400000 | -0.85 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5.200000 | -0.400000 | 6.100000 | 6.10 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM | -0.300000 | 1.000000 | -0.200000 | -0.08 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.700000 | -0.100000 | 0.100000 | 0.30 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | -0.100000 | 0.200000 | 0.300000 | 0.30 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.120000 | -0.500000 | -0.100000 | -0.17 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Balance of Trade | -391.700000 | -431.800000 | -415.000000 | -410.82 | low |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.850000 | 2.860000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.290000 | 0.220000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.300000 | 4.300000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.590000 | 4.520000 | - | - | critical |
| Sunday, December 22, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| Saturday, December 21, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1833000.000000 | 1881000.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 219000.000000 | 222000.000000 | - | - | critical |
| Friday, December 20, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 127.893000 | 128.636600 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.340000 | 2.350000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.290000 | 2.290000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5930.850000 | 5867.080000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.043000 | 1.035700 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 156.110000 | 157.730000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 18.360000 | 24.090000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.180000 | 0.220000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index | -0.497300 | -0.580200 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions | -0.481390 | -0.480220 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.720000 | 4.740000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 69.710000 | 70.100000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 73.190000 | 73.750000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Palladium Speculative net positions | -7311.000000 | -6029.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Silver Speculative net positions | 40264.000000 | 41165.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Aluminium Speculative net positions | -819.000000 | -111.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Platinum Speculative net positions | 13744.000000 | 14829.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Copper Speculative net positions | 5940.000000 | 10959.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Gold Speculative net positions | 262041.000000 | 275586.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count | 589.000000 | 589.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 483.000000 | 482.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 73.300000 | 76.900000 | 71.600000 | 73.57 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.000000 | 3.200000 | 3.100000 | 3.08 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 75.100000 | 63.900000 | 77.700000 | 78.75 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 2.800000 | 2.600000 | 2.900000 | 2.85 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 74.000000 | 71.800000 | 74.000000 | 75.48 | high |
| 00:00 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.100000 | 0.200000 | 0.200000 | 0.18 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.100000 | 0.300000 | 0.200000 | 0.18 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.800000 | 2.800000 | 2.900000 | 2.85 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.400000 | 0.300000 | 0.500000 | 0.55 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.300000 | 0.700000 | 0.400000 | 0.38 | high |
| 00:00 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.400000 | 2.300000 | 2.500000 | 2.48 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.860000 | 2.910000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.220000 | 0.250000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | Crude Oil Imports | 6471.000000 | 6649.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Crude Oil Refinery Inputs | 13585.000000 | 13604.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Total Motor Gasoline Stocks | 223667.000000 | 222037.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Distillate Fuel Oil Stocks | 116461.000000 | 118155.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.300000 | 4.320000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.520000 | 4.570000 | - | - | critical |
| Thursday, December 19, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.636600 | 127.641800 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.350000 | 2.380000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.290000 | 2.320000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5867.080000 | 5872.160000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.035700 | 1.046900 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.730000 | 154.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 24.090000 | 27.620000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.220000 | 0.140000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.740000 | 4.650000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.580000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 70.100000 | 70.800000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 73.750000 | 74.570000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Balance Sheet | 6.890000 | 6.900000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Foreign Bond Investment | 92.100000 | 77.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 152.300000 | 216.100000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Overall Net Capital Flows | 203.600000 | 398.900000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year TIPS Auction | 2.121000 | 1.670000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 15-Year Mortgage Rate | 5.920000 | 5.840000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.720000 | 6.600000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.230000 | 4.240000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.230000 | 4.260000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | -4.000000 | -2.000000 | 5.000000 | 2.75 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | -5.000000 | -4.000000 | 4.000000 | 2.75 | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -125.000000 | -190.000000 | -126.000000 | -124.67 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.150000 | 3.960000 | 4.070000 | 4.08 | high |
| 00:00 | US | CB Leading Index MoM | 0.300000 | -0.400000 | -0.100000 | 0.05 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | 4.800000 | 3.400000 | 1.000000 | 1.63 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.700000 | 2.800000 | 3.500000 | 3.60 | low |
| Thursday, February 15, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.8 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.05 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 0.6 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 4.90 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.8 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.20 | High |
| 13:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | -2.4 | -43.7 | -15 | -21.52 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 5.2 | -10.6 | -8 | -5.60 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | -2.4 | -2.9 | -2.1 | -1.53 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 218.5 | 212.75 | 216 | 217.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | -1.3 | -2.4 | -1.7 | -1.75 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 212 | 220 | 220 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.8 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Medium |
| Wednesday, February 14, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 12.018 | 5.521 | 2.56 | 4.37 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.915 | -3.22 | -1.6 | -2.19 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -3.658 | -3.145 | -1.16 | -1.69 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI MoM | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.18 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | -0.08 | Low |
| Tuesday, February 13, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 8.52 | 0.674 | 2.6 | NaN | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 308.417 | 306.746 | 307.986 | 308.13 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.00 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 309.685 | 308.742 | 309.4 | 309.63 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.78 | High |
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 89.9 | 91.9 | 91.1 | 91.10 | Low |
| Monday, February 12, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -22 | -129 | -21 | -37.19 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.92 | Low |
| Thursday, February 8, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -75 | -197 | -76 | -74.67 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 218 | 227 | 220 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 212.25 | 208.5 | 210 | 211.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1871 | 1894 | 1878 | NaN | High |
| Wednesday, February 7, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 20:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 1.56 | 23.75 | 16 | 16.08 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -3.22 | -2.542 | -1 | -1.59 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 5.521 | 1.234 | 1.895 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -3.145 | 1.156 | 0.14 | -0.39 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 258.2 | 254.3 | 255 | 256.02 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 320.4 | 316.2 | 318 | 318.42 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -62.2 | -61.9 | -62.2 | -58.02 | Medium |
| Tuesday, February 6, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 0.674 | -2.5 | 2.133 | NaN | Medium |
| 15:10 | US | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index | 44 | 44.7 | 47.2 | 47.08 | Medium |
| Monday, February 5, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 53.4 | 50.5 | 52 | 51.85 | High |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.5 | 43.8 | 46 | 45.27 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.8 | 55.8 | 57 | 57.02 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 64 | 57.4 | 56.5 | 58.20 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55 | 52.8 | 53.1 | 52.85 | Low |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52 | 50.9 | 52.3 | 52.57 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.5 | 51.4 | 52.9 | 53.17 | High |
| Friday, February 2, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 77.1 | 67.4 | 75.9 | 77.87 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.2 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0 | -0.05 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.78 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 79 | 69.7 | 78.9 | 80.38 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 81.9 | 73.3 | 83.3 | 84.35 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Government Payrolls | 36 | 55 | 20 | 29.50 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.25 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Participation Rate | 62.5 | 62.5 | 62.4 | 62.38 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.1 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.22 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | 353 | 333 | 180 | 234.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 23 | 8 | 5 | 9.75 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 317 | 278 | 155 | 204.00 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Medium |
| Thursday, February 1, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -197 | -326 | -194 | -192.67 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 47.1 | 47.5 | 48.2 | 48.43 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 52.9 | 45.2 | 46.9 | 47.83 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 52.5 | 47 | 47.4 | 49.95 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 49.1 | 47.1 | 47 | 47.60 | High |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.7 | 47.9 | 47.2 | 48.68 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 0.5 | -1.1 | 1.6 | 1.05 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 224 | 215 | 212 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 3.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1898 | 1828 | 1840 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 207.75 | 202.5 | 205 | 206.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 82.307 | 34.817 | 36 | 40.53 | Low |
| Wednesday, January 31, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.50 | High |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.542 | -1.417 | -0.425 | -1.01 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 1.234 | -9.233 | -0.217 | 1.59 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 1.156 | 4.913 | 1.483 | 0.96 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 46 | 47.2 | 48 | 46.10 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1 | 0.95 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 107 | 158 | 145 | 147.75 | High |
| Tuesday, January 30, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.5 | -6.674 | -0.867 | NaN | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | -9.3 | -8.8 | -8 | -8.18 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | -3.6 | 4 | 3 | 1.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.392 | 3.524 | 3.45 | 3.42 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 114.8 | 108 | 115 | 112.88 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 9.026 | 8.925 | 8.75 | 8.80 | High |
| 14:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.67 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.10 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | House Price Index | 417.4 | 416.1 | 417.5 | 417.48 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.28 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.72 | Medium |
| Monday, January 29, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -27.4 | -10.4 | -23 | -23.15 | Medium |
| Friday, January 26, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 1.3 | -5.4 | -3.4 | -1.95 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 8.3 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 3.58 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.58 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3 | 2.95 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.45 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.27 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 13:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.18 | Medium |
| Thursday, January 25, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 16:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | -17 | -4 | -21 | -22.25 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | -9 | -1 | -9 | -11.25 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -326 | -154 | -322 | -320.67 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.664 | 0.615 | 0.645 | 0.65 | High |
| 15:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | 8 | -9 | 8 | 7.43 | High |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv | 3.3 | 4.9 | 2 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.65 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.15 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0.03 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -88.46 | -89.33 | -88 | -88.66 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 3.3 | 4.9 | 2 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.95 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 1.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.70 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1833 | 1806 | 1828 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ Adv | 1.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 214 | 189 | 200 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM | 0.5 | 6.9 | -0.1 | 0.02 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 202.25 | 203.75 | 205 | 206.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.25 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.23 | Medium |
| 12:40 | US | Building Permits | 1.493 | 1.467 | 1.495 | 1.50 | Medium |
| 12:40 | US | Building Permits MoM | 1.8 | -2.1 | 1.9 | 1.90 | Low |
| Wednesday, January 24, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -9.233 | -2.492 | -2.15 | -0.34 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 4.913 | 3.083 | 2.3 | 1.77 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.417 | 2.37 | 0.348 | -0.24 | Low |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.3 | 50.9 | 50.3 | 50.57 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.9 | 51.4 | 51 | 51.27 | High |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 47.9 | 47.9 | 49.38 | High |
| Tuesday, January 23, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -6.674 | 0.483 | -3 | NaN | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -15 | -11 | -7 | -9.25 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 4 | 0 | -5 | -0.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -15 | -17 | -20 | -22.00 | Low |
| Monday, January 22, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | CB Leading Index MoM | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.15 | Low |
| Friday, January 19, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.05 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.88 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 75.9 | 67.4 | 67 | 68.97 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.93 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 78.8 | 69.7 | 70 | 71.48 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 83.3 | 73.3 | 73 | 74.05 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.78 | 3.82 | 3.82 | 3.83 | High |
| Thursday, January 18, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 2.37 | 6.528 | 0.88 | 0.29 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.083 | 8.029 | 2.15 | 1.62 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -2.492 | 1.338 | -0.313 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -154 | -140 | -164 | -162.67 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -10.6 | -12.8 | -7 | -4.60 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.495 | 1.467 | 1.48 | 1.48 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 203.25 | 208 | 208 | 209.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 203 | 207 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 1.9 | -2.1 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -4.3 | 10.8 | -8.3 | -6.30 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.46 | 1.525 | 1.426 | 1.44 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1806 | 1832 | 1845 | NaN | High |
| Wednesday, January 17, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 0.483 | -5.215 | -2.4 | NaN | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 44 | 37 | 39 | 41.50 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.9 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.53 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 78.6 | 78.6 | 78.7 | 78.65 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.45 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | -1 | -0.1 | 0.55 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | Medium |
| 14:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.05 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5.6 | 4 | 4 | 3.10 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1 | -1.05 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | -3.2 | -5.2 | -5.8 | -5.22 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.28 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.05 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.45 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.17 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.30 | High |
| Tuesday, January 16, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | -43.7 | -14.5 | -5 | -11.53 | High |
| Friday, January 12, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 17:00 | US | Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy | 3 | 0.268 | 2.975 | 2.99 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn | 12.169 | 1.361 | 12.05 | 12.11 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat | 1.41 | 1.78 | 1.387 | 1.40 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 1.8 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.85 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.13 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.45 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.15 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.02 | High |
| Thursday, January 11, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -129 | -314 | -65.25 | -81.44 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -140 | -14 | -119 | -117.67 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 207.75 | 208 | 210 | 211.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.9 | 4 | 3.8 | 3.88 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 306.746 | 307.051 | 306.61 | 306.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1834 | 1868 | 1871 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 308.85 | 307.917 | 308.2 | 308.43 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 202 | 203 | 210 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.30 | High |
| Wednesday, January 10, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 1.338 | -5.503 | -0.675 | 1.13 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 6.528 | 10.09 | 2.382 | 1.79 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 8.029 | 10.9 | 2.489 | 1.96 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Medium |
| Tuesday, January 9, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.215 | -7.418 | -1.2 | NaN | Medium |
| 15:05 | US | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index | 44.7 | 40 | 42 | 41.88 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 316.9 | 323.1 | 317.6 | 318.02 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 253.7 | 258.6 | 252.8 | 253.82 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -63.2 | -64.5 | -65 | -60.82 | High |
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 91.9 | 90.6 | 90.7 | 90.70 | Low |
| Monday, January 8, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 20:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 23.75 | 5.13 | 9 | 9.08 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.22 | Low |
| Friday, January 5, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.6 | 55.1 | 55.3 | 55.32 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 52.8 | 55.5 | 55.7 | 55.45 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 43.3 | 50.7 | 50.7 | 49.98 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 57.4 | 58.3 | 58.1 | 59.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 50.6 | 52.7 | 52.6 | 52.45 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 2.6 | -3.4 | 2.1 | 2.23 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.1 | -1.3 | 0.7 | 0.65 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Government Payrolls | 52 | 37 | 30 | 39.50 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | 216 | 173 | 170 | 224.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 164 | 136 | 130 | 179.00 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.33 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.1 | 7 | 7.2 | 7.15 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 6 | 26 | 5 | 9.75 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Participation Rate | 62.5 | 62.8 | 62.7 | 62.68 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.1 | 4 | 3.9 | 4.05 | Medium |
| Thursday, January 4, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 10.09 | 0.741 | 0.588 | -0.00 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 10.9 | -0.669 | -0.215 | -0.74 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -5.503 | -7.114 | -3.725 | -1.92 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -14 | -87 | -40 | -38.67 | Low |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.9 | 50.7 | 51 | 51.27 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.4 | 50.8 | 51.3 | 51.57 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1855 | 1886 | 1883 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 207.75 | 212.5 | 213 | 214.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 202 | 220 | 216 | NaN | High |
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 164 | 101 | 115 | 117.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 34.817 | 45.51 | 63 | 67.53 | Low |
| Wednesday, January 3, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -7.418 | 1.837 | -2.967 | NaN | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 47.4 | 46.7 | 47.1 | 47.70 | High |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 8.79 | 8.852 | 8.85 | 8.90 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 48.1 | 45.8 | 46.1 | 46.33 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 45.2 | 49.9 | 47.5 | 48.42 | Low |
| Tuesday, January 2, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
