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United States 4-Week Bill Auction
3.85
Actual
—
Consensus
3.820000
Previous
THE RELEASE 4-Week Bill Auction (United States) was reported at 3.85% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.82%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.70%, ranging from 3.55% to 4.06% across 44 releases. WHY IT MATTERS The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.82%, up from the prior three at 3.66%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.14%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.17%). In September readings over the past 3 years, 4-Week Bill Auction has averaged 4.25%. WHAT TO WATCH NEXT The next release is scheduled for October 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 30) and ADP Employment Change (Sep 30). Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
4 Week Bill Auction - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, December 31, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | US | Population Total | 340003797.000000 | 336755052.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Personal Remittances Received (US$) | 8712000000.000000 | 8400000000.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | FDI Net Inflows (% of GDP) | 1.013919 | 1.301418 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Labor Force Participation Rate (%) | 61.959000 | 62.080000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Unemployment (% of Labor Force) | 4.022000 | 3.638000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | GDP Deflator (Annual %) | 2.482369 | 3.700214 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Inflation, Consumer Prices (Annual %) | 2.949525 | 4.116338 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Broad Money (% of GDP) | 98.756259 | 98.815263 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Central Government Debt (% of GDP) | 115.768353 | 114.734626 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Trade (% of GDP) | 25.016017 | 24.929298 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -4.045646 | -3.336808 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | GDP Per Capita (Current US$) | 86169.664158 | 82586.784771 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | GDP (Current US$) | 29298013000000.000000 | 27811517000000.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | GDP Growth (Annual %) | 2.793187 | 2.934363 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 129.277500 | 128.820500 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.380000 | 2.350000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.340000 | 2.310000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5881.630000 | 5906.940000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.035100 | 1.038600 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.370000 | 157.260000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 17.350000 | 17.400000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.210000 | 0.180000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.780000 | 4.770000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 72.440000 | 71.730000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 74.580000 | 74.240000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -1.442000 | -3.200000 | -3.000000 | NaN | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | 9.600000 | 9.800000 | 9.000000 | 8.82 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 13.800000 | 10.900000 | 12.000000 | 10.80 | low |
| 00:00 | US | House Price Index | 432.300000 | 430.600000 | 432.300000 | 432.27 | low |
| 00:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.400000 | 0.700000 | 0.500000 | 0.47 | low |
| 00:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 4.500000 | 4.500000 | 3.900000 | 4.08 | low |
| 00:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | -0.200000 | -0.300000 | -0.200000 | -0.30 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 4.200000 | 4.600000 | 4.100000 | 4.03 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Redbook YoY | 7.100000 | 5.900000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.920000 | 2.940000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.330000 | 0.310000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.250000 | 4.240000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.580000 | 4.550000 | - | - | critical |
| Monday, December 30, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.820500 | 128.450000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.350000 | 2.380000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.310000 | 2.340000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5906.940000 | 5970.840000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Regular Gas Price | 3.006000 | 3.024000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.038600 | 1.042300 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.260000 | 157.730000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 17.400000 | 15.950000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.180000 | 0.310000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.770000 | 4.820000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 71.730000 | 71.280000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 74.240000 | 73.770000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.135000 | 4.170000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.230000 | 4.240000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 3.400000 | -2.700000 | -0.400000 | -0.55 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 2.200000 | 1.800000 | 0.700000 | 2.78 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 6.900000 | 5.400000 | 5.800000 | 7.25 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Chicago PMI | 36.900000 | 40.200000 | 42.500000 | 40.60 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.940000 | 2.840000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.310000 | 0.310000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.240000 | 4.310000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.550000 | 4.620000 | - | - | critical |
| Sunday, December 29, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| Saturday, December 28, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1868000.000000 | 1833000.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 212000.000000 | 219000.000000 | - | - | critical |
| Friday, December 27, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.450000 | 128.332900 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.380000 | 2.390000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.340000 | 2.350000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5970.840000 | 6037.590000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.042300 | 1.042300 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.730000 | 158.010000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 15.950000 | 14.730000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.310000 | 0.230000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index | -0.623700 | -0.497300 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions | -0.485420 | -0.481390 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.820000 | 4.760000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 71.280000 | 70.380000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 73.770000 | 73.500000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 483.000000 | 483.000000 | 483.000000 | NaN | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.320000 | 0.108000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -4.237000 | -0.934000 | -2.000000 | -0.19 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Imports Change | 0.995000 | -1.131000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change | 0.205000 | -0.048000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change | 0.178000 | -0.135000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.694000 | -3.180000 | -0.700000 | -1.29 | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Production Change | 0.051000 | -0.173000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 1.630000 | 2.348000 | -1.000000 | -1.53 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change | -0.062000 | -0.304000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count | 589.000000 | 589.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -93.000000 | -125.000000 | -99.000000 | -97.67 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -102.860000 | -98.260000 | -100.700000 | -101.36 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.200000 | 0.100000 | 0.200000 | 0.25 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.600000 | 0.300000 | 0.000000 | 0.27 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Current Account | -870.000000 | -774.000000 | -600.000000 | -735.00 | low |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.840000 | 2.860000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.310000 | 0.280000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | Crude Oil Imports | 6926.000000 | 6471.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Crude Oil Refinery Inputs | 13573.000000 | 13585.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Total Motor Gasoline Stocks | 231384.000000 | 223667.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Distillate Fuel Oil Stocks | 122867.000000 | 116461.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.310000 | 4.300000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.620000 | 4.580000 | - | - | critical |
| Thursday, December 26, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.332900 | 128.337700 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.390000 | 2.390000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.350000 | 2.350000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 6037.590000 | 6040.040000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.042300 | 1.038800 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 158.010000 | 157.290000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 14.730000 | 14.270000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.230000 | 0.190000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.760000 | 4.760000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 70.380000 | 70.870000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.860000 | 2.860000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.280000 | 0.300000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.300000 | 4.290000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.580000 | 4.590000 | - | - | critical |
| Wednesday, December 25, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Fed Total Assets (Balance Sheet) | 6885963.000000 | 6889332.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| Tuesday, December 24, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.337700 | 128.302100 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.390000 | 2.380000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.350000 | 2.320000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 6040.040000 | 5974.070000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.038800 | 1.040900 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.290000 | 157.040000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 14.270000 | 16.780000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.190000 | 0.230000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.760000 | 4.780000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 70.870000 | 69.500000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 73.500000 | 72.120000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -3.200000 | -4.700000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year FRN Auction | 0.140000 | 0.170000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Note Auction | 4.478000 | 4.197000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index | 23.000000 | 9.000000 | 7.000000 | 15.00 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -10.000000 | -14.000000 | -9.000000 | -11.25 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -11.000000 | -12.000000 | 2.000000 | 0.00 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Redbook YoY | 5.900000 | 4.800000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.860000 | 2.850000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.300000 | 0.290000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.290000 | 4.300000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.590000 | 4.590000 | - | - | critical |
| Monday, December 23, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.302100 | 127.893000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.380000 | 2.340000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.320000 | 2.290000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5974.070000 | 5930.850000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Regular Gas Price | 3.024000 | 3.016000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.040900 | 1.043000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.040000 | 156.110000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 16.780000 | 18.360000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.230000 | 0.180000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.780000 | 4.720000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 69.500000 | 69.710000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 72.120000 | 73.190000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Note Auction | 4.335000 | 4.274000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 52-Week Bill Auction | 4.070000 | 4.190000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 42-Day Bill Auction | 4.280000 | 4.270000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | 5.900000 | -14.800000 | 8.200000 | 7.63 | high |
| 00:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 104.700000 | 112.800000 | 113.000000 | 110.88 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.664000 | 0.627000 | 0.650000 | 0.66 | high |
| 00:00 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.240000 | 4.250000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 6-Month Bill Auction | 4.170000 | 4.160000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.493000 | 1.419000 | 1.505000 | 1.51 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | -1.100000 | 0.800000 | -0.400000 | -0.85 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | 5.200000 | -0.400000 | 6.100000 | 6.10 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM | -0.300000 | 1.000000 | -0.200000 | -0.08 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.700000 | -0.100000 | 0.100000 | 0.30 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | -0.100000 | 0.200000 | 0.300000 | 0.30 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.120000 | -0.500000 | -0.100000 | -0.17 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Balance of Trade | -391.700000 | -431.800000 | -415.000000 | -410.82 | low |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.850000 | 2.860000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.290000 | 0.220000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.300000 | 4.300000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.590000 | 4.520000 | - | - | critical |
| Sunday, December 22, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| Saturday, December 21, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1833000.000000 | 1881000.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 219000.000000 | 222000.000000 | - | - | critical |
| Friday, December 20, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 127.893000 | 128.636600 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.340000 | 2.350000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.290000 | 2.290000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5930.850000 | 5867.080000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.043000 | 1.035700 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 156.110000 | 157.730000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 18.360000 | 24.090000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.180000 | 0.220000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index | -0.497300 | -0.580200 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions | -0.481390 | -0.480220 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.720000 | 4.740000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.330000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 69.710000 | 70.100000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 73.190000 | 73.750000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Palladium Speculative net positions | -7311.000000 | -6029.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Silver Speculative net positions | 40264.000000 | 41165.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Aluminium Speculative net positions | -819.000000 | -111.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Platinum Speculative net positions | 13744.000000 | 14829.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Copper Speculative net positions | 5940.000000 | 10959.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | CFTC Gold Speculative net positions | 262041.000000 | 275586.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count | 589.000000 | 589.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 483.000000 | 482.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 73.300000 | 76.900000 | 71.600000 | 73.57 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.000000 | 3.200000 | 3.100000 | 3.08 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 75.100000 | 63.900000 | 77.700000 | 78.75 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 2.800000 | 2.600000 | 2.900000 | 2.85 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 74.000000 | 71.800000 | 74.000000 | 75.48 | high |
| 00:00 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.100000 | 0.200000 | 0.200000 | 0.18 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.100000 | 0.300000 | 0.200000 | 0.18 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.800000 | 2.800000 | 2.900000 | 2.85 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.400000 | 0.300000 | 0.500000 | 0.55 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.300000 | 0.700000 | 0.400000 | 0.38 | high |
| 00:00 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.400000 | 2.300000 | 2.500000 | 2.48 | medium |
| 00:00 | US | High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) | 2.860000 | 2.910000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread | 0.220000 | 0.250000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | Crude Oil Imports | 6471.000000 | 6649.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Crude Oil Refinery Inputs | 13585.000000 | 13604.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Total Motor Gasoline Stocks | 223667.000000 | 222037.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Distillate Fuel Oil Stocks | 116461.000000 | 118155.000000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 2-Year Treasury Yield | 4.300000 | 4.320000 | - | - | critical |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.520000 | 4.570000 | - | - | critical |
| Thursday, December 19, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:00 | US | Trade Weighted US Dollar Index (Broad) | 128.636600 | 127.641800 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.350000 | 2.380000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation | 2.290000 | 2.320000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | S&P 500 Index | 5867.080000 | 5872.160000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | USD/EUR Exchange Rate | 1.035700 | 1.046900 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | JPY/USD Exchange Rate | 157.730000 | 154.000000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | CBOE VIX | 24.090000 | 27.620000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 10Y-3M Treasury Spread | 0.220000 | 0.140000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Treasury Yield | 4.740000 | 4.650000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Funds Daily | 4.330000 | 4.580000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | WTI Crude Oil Price | 70.100000 | 70.800000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Brent Crude Oil Price | 73.750000 | 74.570000 | - | - | high |
| 00:00 | US | Fed Balance Sheet | 6.890000 | 6.900000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Foreign Bond Investment | 92.100000 | 77.000000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 152.300000 | 216.100000 | - | - | medium |
| 00:00 | US | Overall Net Capital Flows | 203.600000 | 398.900000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 5-Year TIPS Auction | 2.121000 | 1.670000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 15-Year Mortgage Rate | 5.920000 | 5.840000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.720000 | 6.600000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 4-Week Bill Auction | 4.230000 | 4.240000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | 8-Week Bill Auction | 4.230000 | 4.260000 | - | - | low |
| 00:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | -4.000000 | -2.000000 | 5.000000 | 2.75 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | -5.000000 | -4.000000 | 4.000000 | 2.75 | low |
| 00:00 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -125.000000 | -190.000000 | -126.000000 | -124.67 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.150000 | 3.960000 | 4.070000 | 4.08 | high |
| 00:00 | US | CB Leading Index MoM | 0.300000 | -0.400000 | -0.100000 | 0.05 | low |
| 00:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | 4.800000 | 3.400000 | 1.000000 | 1.63 | high |
| 00:00 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.700000 | 2.800000 | 3.500000 | 3.60 | low |
| Thursday, February 15, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.8 | -0.7 | 0 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.05 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 0.6 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 4.90 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.8 | 0.4 | -0.1 | -0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.20 | High |
| 13:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | -2.4 | -43.7 | -15 | -21.52 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 5.2 | -10.6 | -8 | -5.60 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | -2.4 | -2.9 | -2.1 | -1.53 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 218.5 | 212.75 | 216 | 217.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | -1.3 | -2.4 | -1.7 | -1.75 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 212 | 220 | 220 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.8 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Medium |
| Wednesday, February 14, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 12.018 | 5.521 | 2.56 | 4.37 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.915 | -3.22 | -1.6 | -2.19 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -3.658 | -3.145 | -1.16 | -1.69 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI MoM | -0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.18 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | -0.08 | Low |
| Tuesday, February 13, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 8.52 | 0.674 | 2.6 | NaN | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 308.417 | 306.746 | 307.986 | 308.13 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.00 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 309.685 | 308.742 | 309.4 | 309.63 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.78 | High |
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 89.9 | 91.9 | 91.1 | 91.10 | Low |
| Monday, February 12, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -22 | -129 | -21 | -37.19 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2.92 | Low |
| Thursday, February 8, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -75 | -197 | -76 | -74.67 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.45 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 218 | 227 | 220 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 212.25 | 208.5 | 210 | 211.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1871 | 1894 | 1878 | NaN | High |
| Wednesday, February 7, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 20:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 1.56 | 23.75 | 16 | 16.08 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -3.22 | -2.542 | -1 | -1.59 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 5.521 | 1.234 | 1.895 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -3.145 | 1.156 | 0.14 | -0.39 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 258.2 | 254.3 | 255 | 256.02 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 320.4 | 316.2 | 318 | 318.42 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -62.2 | -61.9 | -62.2 | -58.02 | Medium |
| Tuesday, February 6, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 0.674 | -2.5 | 2.133 | NaN | Medium |
| 15:10 | US | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index | 44 | 44.7 | 47.2 | 47.08 | Medium |
| Monday, February 5, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 53.4 | 50.5 | 52 | 51.85 | High |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.5 | 43.8 | 46 | 45.27 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.8 | 55.8 | 57 | 57.02 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 64 | 57.4 | 56.5 | 58.20 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55 | 52.8 | 53.1 | 52.85 | Low |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52 | 50.9 | 52.3 | 52.57 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.5 | 51.4 | 52.9 | 53.17 | High |
| Friday, February 2, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 77.1 | 67.4 | 75.9 | 77.87 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.2 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 0.33 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0 | -0.05 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.78 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.85 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 79 | 69.7 | 78.9 | 80.38 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 81.9 | 73.3 | 83.3 | 84.35 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 7.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Government Payrolls | 36 | 55 | 20 | 29.50 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.25 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Participation Rate | 62.5 | 62.5 | 62.4 | 62.38 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.1 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.22 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | 353 | 333 | 180 | 234.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 23 | 8 | 5 | 9.75 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 317 | 278 | 155 | 204.00 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Medium |
| Thursday, February 1, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -197 | -326 | -194 | -192.67 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 47.1 | 47.5 | 48.2 | 48.43 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 52.9 | 45.2 | 46.9 | 47.83 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 52.5 | 47 | 47.4 | 49.95 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 49.1 | 47.1 | 47 | 47.60 | High |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.7 | 47.9 | 47.2 | 48.68 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 0.5 | -1.1 | 1.6 | 1.05 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 224 | 215 | 212 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 3.2 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1898 | 1828 | 1840 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 207.75 | 202.5 | 205 | 206.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 82.307 | 34.817 | 36 | 40.53 | Low |
| Wednesday, January 31, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.50 | High |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.542 | -1.417 | -0.425 | -1.01 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 1.234 | -9.233 | -0.217 | 1.59 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 1.156 | 4.913 | 1.483 | 0.96 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 46 | 47.2 | 48 | 46.10 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1 | 0.95 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.00 | Medium |
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 107 | 158 | 145 | 147.75 | High |
| Tuesday, January 30, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -2.5 | -6.674 | -0.867 | NaN | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | -9.3 | -8.8 | -8 | -8.18 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | -3.6 | 4 | 3 | 1.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.392 | 3.524 | 3.45 | 3.42 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 114.8 | 108 | 115 | 112.88 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 9.026 | 8.925 | 8.75 | 8.80 | High |
| 14:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 6.67 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.10 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | House Price Index | 417.4 | 416.1 | 417.5 | 417.48 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.28 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 5.72 | Medium |
| Monday, January 29, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -27.4 | -10.4 | -23 | -23.15 | Medium |
| Friday, January 26, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 1.3 | -5.4 | -3.4 | -1.95 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 8.3 | -0.3 | 1.5 | 3.58 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.58 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Personal Income | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.9 | 3.2 | 3 | 2.95 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.45 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.27 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 13:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.18 | Medium |
| Thursday, January 25, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 16:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | -17 | -4 | -21 | -22.25 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | -9 | -1 | -9 | -11.25 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -326 | -154 | -322 | -320.67 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.664 | 0.615 | 0.645 | 0.65 | High |
| 15:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | 8 | -9 | 8 | 7.43 | High |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv | 3.3 | 4.9 | 2 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.3 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.65 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.15 | 0.01 | 0.1 | 0.03 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ Adv | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -88.46 | -89.33 | -88 | -88.66 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 3.3 | 4.9 | 2 | 2.65 | High |
| 13:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.95 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 1.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.70 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1833 | 1806 | 1828 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ Adv | 1.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 214 | 189 | 200 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM | 0.5 | 6.9 | -0.1 | 0.02 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 202.25 | 203.75 | 205 | 206.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.25 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.23 | Medium |
| 12:40 | US | Building Permits | 1.493 | 1.467 | 1.495 | 1.50 | Medium |
| 12:40 | US | Building Permits MoM | 1.8 | -2.1 | 1.9 | 1.90 | Low |
| Wednesday, January 24, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -9.233 | -2.492 | -2.15 | -0.34 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 4.913 | 3.083 | 2.3 | 1.77 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.417 | 2.37 | 0.348 | -0.24 | Low |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.3 | 50.9 | 50.3 | 50.57 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 52.9 | 51.4 | 51 | 51.27 | High |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.3 | 47.9 | 47.9 | 49.38 | High |
| Tuesday, January 23, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -6.674 | 0.483 | -3 | NaN | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -15 | -11 | -7 | -9.25 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 4 | 0 | -5 | -0.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -15 | -17 | -20 | -22.00 | Low |
| Monday, January 22, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | CB Leading Index MoM | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.15 | Low |
| Friday, January 19, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.05 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.88 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 75.9 | 67.4 | 67 | 68.97 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.93 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 78.8 | 69.7 | 70 | 71.48 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 83.3 | 73.3 | 73 | 74.05 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 3.78 | 3.82 | 3.82 | 3.83 | High |
| Thursday, January 18, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 2.37 | 6.528 | 0.88 | 0.29 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.083 | 8.029 | 2.15 | 1.62 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -2.492 | 1.338 | -0.313 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -154 | -140 | -164 | -162.67 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -10.6 | -12.8 | -7 | -4.60 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.495 | 1.467 | 1.48 | 1.48 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 203.25 | 208 | 208 | 209.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 187 | 203 | 207 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 1.9 | -2.1 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -4.3 | 10.8 | -8.3 | -6.30 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.46 | 1.525 | 1.426 | 1.44 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1806 | 1832 | 1845 | NaN | High |
| Wednesday, January 17, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 0.483 | -5.215 | -2.4 | NaN | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 44 | 37 | 39 | 41.50 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.9 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.53 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 78.6 | 78.6 | 78.7 | 78.65 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.45 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.2 | -1 | -0.1 | 0.55 | Low |
| 14:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | Medium |
| 14:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0.05 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5.6 | 4 | 4 | 3.10 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | -1.6 | -1.5 | -1 | -1.05 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | -3.2 | -5.2 | -5.8 | -5.22 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.28 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.05 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -0.9 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.45 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.17 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.30 | High |
| Tuesday, January 16, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | -43.7 | -14.5 | -5 | -11.53 | High |
| Friday, January 12, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 17:00 | US | Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy | 3 | 0.268 | 2.975 | 2.99 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn | 12.169 | 1.361 | 12.05 | 12.11 | Low |
| 17:00 | US | Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat | 1.41 | 1.78 | 1.387 | 1.40 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 1.8 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.85 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.13 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.45 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI YoY | 1 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.15 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | PPI MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.02 | High |
| Thursday, January 11, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -129 | -314 | -65.25 | -81.44 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -140 | -14 | -119 | -117.67 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 207.75 | 208 | 210 | 211.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 3.9 | 4 | 3.8 | 3.88 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 306.746 | 307.051 | 306.61 | 306.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1834 | 1868 | 1871 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 308.85 | 307.917 | 308.2 | 308.43 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 202 | 203 | 210 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.30 | High |
| Wednesday, January 10, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 1.338 | -5.503 | -0.675 | 1.13 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 6.528 | 10.09 | 2.382 | 1.79 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 8.029 | 10.9 | 2.489 | 1.96 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Medium |
| Tuesday, January 9, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.215 | -7.418 | -1.2 | NaN | Medium |
| 15:05 | US | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index | 44.7 | 40 | 42 | 41.88 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 316.9 | 323.1 | 317.6 | 318.02 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 253.7 | 258.6 | 252.8 | 253.82 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -63.2 | -64.5 | -65 | -60.82 | High |
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 91.9 | 90.6 | 90.7 | 90.70 | Low |
| Monday, January 8, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 20:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 23.75 | 5.13 | 9 | 9.08 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectations | 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.22 | Low |
| Friday, January 5, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.6 | 55.1 | 55.3 | 55.32 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 52.8 | 55.5 | 55.7 | 55.45 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 43.3 | 50.7 | 50.7 | 49.98 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 57.4 | 58.3 | 58.1 | 59.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 50.6 | 52.7 | 52.6 | 52.45 | High |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 2.6 | -3.4 | 2.1 | 2.23 | Medium |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.1 | -1.3 | 0.7 | 0.65 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Government Payrolls | 52 | 37 | 30 | 39.50 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | 216 | 173 | 170 | 224.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.75 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 164 | 136 | 130 | 179.00 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.33 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.1 | 7 | 7.2 | 7.15 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 6 | 26 | 5 | 9.75 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | Participation Rate | 62.5 | 62.8 | 62.7 | 62.68 | Medium |
| 13:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.1 | 4 | 3.9 | 4.05 | Medium |
| Thursday, January 4, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 10.09 | 0.741 | 0.588 | -0.00 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 10.9 | -0.669 | -0.215 | -0.74 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -5.503 | -7.114 | -3.725 | -1.92 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | -14 | -87 | -40 | -38.67 | Low |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.9 | 50.7 | 51 | 51.27 | Medium |
| 14:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.4 | 50.8 | 51.3 | 51.57 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1855 | 1886 | 1883 | NaN | High |
| 13:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-week Average | 207.75 | 212.5 | 213 | 214.25 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 202 | 220 | 216 | NaN | High |
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 164 | 101 | 115 | 117.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 34.817 | 45.51 | 63 | 67.53 | Low |
| Wednesday, January 3, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -7.418 | 1.837 | -2.967 | NaN | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 47.4 | 46.7 | 47.1 | 47.70 | High |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 8.79 | 8.852 | 8.85 | 8.90 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 48.1 | 45.8 | 46.1 | 46.33 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 45.2 | 49.9 | 47.5 | 48.42 | Low |
| Tuesday, January 2, 2024 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
